Here’s The Political Black Swan That Could Collapse

Confidence And Suck Markets Into A Black Hole

Global Macro Monitor | Oct. 21, 2012, 6:18 AM | 4,297 | 14

Fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 fiasco.  Not good.

We noted in an earlier post today Governor Romney has moved ahead of President Obama on the Real Clear Politics electoral map for the first time of this presidential campaign.  The Governor has also opened a 7 point lead in the Gallup national tracking poll of likely voters.

We recognize that 19 days is an eternity in politics, but the underlying dynamics with states moving in and out of play and the tightening of polls in the battleground states has increased uncertainty,  at least in our opinion,  on who will be the next POTUS.

It appears to us that the momentum is in Governor Romney’s favor, but we do not have a good sense of the political dynamics on the ground in the states that really matter, such as Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado.

As traders we are always nervous and looking for potential disasters on the horizon.  We are becoming increasingly concerned the way this election is shaping up.   Imagine, for example,  if Governor Romney wins the popular vote and President Obama takes the electoral college, or vice versa.

We see the President’s probability of winning the election on Intrade remaining above 6o percent while Governor Romney opens a fairly significant lead in the daily Gallup tracking poll (see below).  WTF?

The Black Swan?   The fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 election fiasco.  Total disaster.

The resulting political paralysis coming at such a critical time as the country edges toward the fiscal cliff would collapse confidence and suck markets into a black hole that nobody knows how they would look coming out the other side.   Recall the nonlinear dynamics of 2007-08 financial collapse.  Greece?  Wiemar?   Who the %#@& knows and let’s hope and pray we never do.

This isn’t our base case and the probability of such a scenario is relatively low.  But, we believe it is such a high impact event that everyone, including and especially the politicos in Washington,  should be aware, afraid, and have a contingency plan.

We’re always nervous but growing more so as November 6th approaches.  Stay tuned.

Read more:

How To Fix The Economy… In One Simple Chart

 By :   Henry Blodget

Henry Blodget is CEO and Editor-in-Chief of Business Insider.


There’s a lot of sturm und drang these days about who wrecked the economy. And there is a lot of yelling about how to fix it.

But the economy is complicated, so it’s easy to get fooled by someone who is yelling persuasively, especially if they play for your favorite political team.

And the truth is that the “government” is never going to fix our economy. The government can’t fix our economy. The only people who can fix our economy are us.

So let’s walk through some simple charts that show what’s wrong with the economy.

Happily, these charts will offer a simple way to fix it–one that doesn’t need to involve the government.


1. The health of any business or economy depends on the health of its customers, and most American customers (consumers) are strapped or broke. Consumers account for about 70% of the spending in our economy, and the other 30% is tied to consumer spending (when consumers are broke, businesses don’t spend–because there’s no one to sell to.)

This sad state of affairs can be seen in the following chart, which shows that the vast majority of the income in the country goes to the top 50%. The bottom 50%, meanwhile, earn less than $30,000 per year.




2. Most American consumers are strapped or broke because most of the income gains in the past 30 years have gone to the top 10% (and especially the top 1%). The chart below shows the growth of incomes over the past ~90 years. The pink section is the 1%.




3. This increasing inequality has many causes, including globalization (cheaper labor overseas), a decline in the minimum wage, the decline of private-sector unions, changes in the tax code (tax cuts for the highest earners), and other factors. But the bottom line is: Average hourly earnings in America (adjusted for inflation) have not increased in ~50 years:

wealth and inequality

4. At the same time, earnings for the highest-income Americans have gone through the roof. For example, check out how compensation for senior executives has grown relative to compensation for “average production workers” and the minimum wage (which has actually declined after adjusting for inflation). And this is just since 1990.

wealth and inequality


5. Importantly, the problem here is NOT the weak health or profitability of American companies (which was a problem in the early 1980s). American companies are earning more as a percent of the economy than they ever have.




6. One of the reasons American companies are earning so much money is that they’re paying very little to their rank-and-file employees. This is also why average earnings have been stagnant for 50 years and most American consumers are broke. Wages as a percent of the economy are at an all-time low.





7. Meanwhile, a lot of Americans don’t even have jobs, so they’re not earning anything. The employment-to-population ratio is lower that at any time in the past 30 years.




Put all this together, and the problem in the economy becomes clear:

  • Too few jobs
  • Too little pay


Now, some people argue that the way to fix the economy is to give tax cuts to the highest-earning Americans–the “job creators”–so that they can invest in new companies and create jobs.

Well, we’d all like to pay fewer taxes, but unfortunately, the “tax cuts for the rich” approach almost certainly won’t work. Here are a few reasons why:

  • The richest Americans and companies already have plenty of cash
  • The reason these rich Americans and companies aren’t investing and “creating jobs” is that most American consumers (customers) are broke
  • Rich Americans actually don’t “create jobs”–the whole economy creates jobs
  • We’ve been trying the “tax cuts for the rich” approach for three decades, and it is making the inequality problem worse, not better

Now, some other people are arguing that the way to fix the economy is to increase taxes on the rich and companies and “redistribute” this wealth to American consumers.

Well, we will probably need to raise taxes on everyone a bit to reduce the budget deficit (even if we reduce spending–the gap is that big), but this “wealth redistribution” approach also almost certainly won’t work. Here are a few reasons why:

  • The key to creating a sustainable economic recovery is to get the private-sector cranking, not the public sector
  • Having the government collect taxes and write checks to more than half the country to make things “fairer” will understandably ruffle the feathers of those who are paying those taxes
  • Class warfare won’t help anyone
  • This is America: We solve our own problems in this country–we don’t wait for someone else to come along and give us a handout.

So, then, if the answer isn’t 1) cutting taxes for rich Americans and companies, or 2) raising taxes on the rich and giving the money to the poor, what’s the answer?

Let’s go back to the problem.

Here’s the problem in one simple chart:

Corporate profits (blue) are at an all-time high, and American wages (red) are at an all-time low.




This has created a situation in which American corporations and their owners are rich and American consumers are broke.

So, how do we fix the problem?

We persuade American corporations (and their owners) to hire more employees and pay them more, thus giving these employees (American consumers) more spending money. In other words, we take some of those surplus corporate profits and invest them in Americans.




Put differently, we instill a new value system in our companies, one in which employees–American workers–are treated as a constituency that is as important as the two other corporate constituencies that everyone already agrees are important–shareholders and customers.

Jerry Maguire might have put it this way:

“Lower profits, higher wages.”

Persuading corporations to hire more Americans and pay them more will fix the American economy. It will not require the government to raise taxes or grow even bigger. It will not require us to “soak the rich.” It will not even be a government solution.

All it will do is restore balance to a system that has become very imbalanced in the past three decades.

Of course, whenever you suggest that the answer to our economic problems is to persuade corporations to pay their employees more, most people howl with laughter. Persuade corporations to pay people more? What, are you insane? They’ll never pay people more!!! They’re in this for profit!

Well, when people laugh at you for suggesting that corporations should pay people more, you can just point out the following:

Eventually, this will help increase corporate profits.


Because paying Americans more will not just lead to a reduction in near-term profits. It will also lead to faster revenue growth. Because American consumers–the customers of all our companies–will have more spending money.

In other words, corporations don’t have to suddenly become good citizens when they decide to pay Americans more. They can keep on being relentlessly competitive profit-seekers. They can pay employees more with the knowledge that this will eventually lead to faster revenue growth, which will eventually lead to higher profits. So they can do it in their own self-interest!

Make no mistake: The kind of inequality that we have developed in the past three decades is very destabilizing. When the vast majority of people feel as though they’re getting shafted at the hands of a privileged few, they tend to rise up and rebel. This can lead to the election of radical leaders, or, worse, violent revolutions.

The inequality we have developed, in other words, will solve itself one way or another. The richest Americans and companies cannot keep getting richer while the rest of the country gets poorer without the entire system eventually collapsing.

So, it would be nice if we made the necessary changes voluntarily, before everything goes to hell.

And, besides, viewing employees as a very important corporate constituency isn’t just good for the economy–it’s also good for the soul. We’re all in this together. And no one can do it alone.

So, how about it, corporate America?

How about taking a few percentage points of your record profits and use it to hire more employees and pay your existing employees more?

Henry Ford paid his employees more than he had to–so they could buy his cars.

And it worked out for him.

And “the Henry Ford way” is the way we’re going to fix our economy.

SEE ALSO: Greed WAS Good–Then We Overdid It

Read more:

Western firms tap China cash to bid for UK nuclear

By Karolin Schaps and Arno Schuetze

LONDON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) – China may soon control one of Britain’s top nuclear projects after two Chinese state firms teamed up with Western players to bid for the $24 billion development, industry and financial sources told Reuters.

China, which has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves of $3.3 trillion, has been expanding into Europe’s energy and infrastructure sectors by buying stakes in firms such as Britain’s Thames Water and Portuguese utility EDP (EDP.LS).

The British government wants to see new nuclear plants built, but cost overruns in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster and the slowing global economy have made it increasingly difficult for Western developers to find the billions of dollars needed for these projects.